What Happens if the RBA 25bp Rate Hike?
If the RBA decides on a 25 basis point (0.25%) hike, the cash rate would move from 4.10% to 4.35%. Here's what that means for mortgage repayments.
Current cash rate
4.10%
Rate after 25bp rate hike
4.35%
+25bp
Mortgage repayment impact
Based on a 30-year principal & interest loan with 2.5% bank margin above the cash rate.
| Loan size | Current | After 25bp rate hike | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| $300,000 | $1,916/mo | $1,966/mo | +$50/mo |
| $500,000 | $3,193/mo | $3,276/mo | +$83/mo |
| $750,000 | $4,790/mo | $4,914/mo | +$125/mo |
| $1,000,000 | $6,387/mo | $6,553/mo | +$166/mo |
Which meetings price a 25bp rate hike?
| Meeting | Probability |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | 61% |
| June 2026 | 31% |
| August 2026 | 48% |
| September 2026 | 31% |
| November 2026 | 25% |
| December 2026 | 10% |
| February 2027 | 9% |
| March 2027 | 8% |
| May 2027 | 6% |
| June 2027 | 6% |
| August 2027 | 7% |
| September 2027 | 6% |
| December 2027 | 9% |