RBA May 2027 Meeting
Model-estimated probabilities for the RBA rate decision on 4 May 2027, anchored to ASX interbank futures settlement prices.
Latest decision
Meeting summary
Summary of the most recent RBA decision on —.
What markets expected
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What happened
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Meeting date
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Next meeting probabilities · 30 days
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Cut
Hold
Hike
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About this meeting
The RBA Board is scheduled to meet on 4 May 2027 to decide the official cash rate. ASX interbank futures anchor the expected rate shown above; the cut, hold and hike split is a model estimate updated daily.
Probabilities are calculated by fitting a calendar-day weighted expected OCR path to futures month averages, then applying historical prior and dispersion assumptions. Non-business days carry forward the prior business day's rate, and moves are capped at 50 basis points per meeting. This is not a forecast or recommendation.