What Happens if the RBA 25bp Rate Cut?
If the RBA decides on a 25 basis point (0.25%) cut, the cash rate would move from 4.35% to 4.10%. Here's what that means for mortgage repayments.
Current cash rate
4.35%
Rate after 25bp rate cut
4.10%
-25bp
Mortgage repayment impact
Based on a 30-year principal & interest loan with 2.5% bank margin above the cash rate.
| Loan size | Current | After 25bp rate cut | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| $300,000 | $1,966/mo | $1,916/mo | -$50/mo |
| $500,000 | $3,276/mo | $3,193/mo | -$83/mo |
| $750,000 | $4,914/mo | $4,790/mo | -$125/mo |
| $1,000,000 | $6,553/mo | $6,387/mo | -$166/mo |
Which meetings price a 25bp rate cut?
| Meeting | Probability |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 8% |
| September 2026 | 5% |
| November 2026 | 3% |
| December 2026 | 8% |
| February 2027 | 10% |
| March 2027 | 15% |
| May 2027 | 15% |
| June 2027 | 20% |
| August 2027 | 20% |
| September 2027 | 21% |
| November 2027 | 18% |