RBA Rate Forecast 2027
Markets currently expect the cash rate to finish 2027 lower at around 3.68%, based on ASX interbank futures pricing.
Current rate
4.35%
Expected year-end rate
3.68%
Expected total move
-67bp
Expected rate path
| Meeting | Most likely outcome | Expected rate after |
|---|---|---|
| February 2027 | 79% chance of a hold | 4.35% |
| March 2027 | 78% chance of a hold | 4.34% |
| May 2027 | 76% chance of a hold | 4.32% |
| June 2027 | 71% chance of a hold | 4.27% |
| August 2027 | 75% chance of a hold | 4.24% |
| September 2027 | 74% chance of a hold | 4.21% |
| November 2027 | 74% chance of a hold | 4.18% |
| December 2027 | 100% chance of a 50bp cut | 3.68% |
About this forecast
This outlook is derived from ASX interbank futures settlement prices. The expected rate at each meeting reflects the probability-weighted outcome across all possible moves (hold, 25bp cut/hike, 50bp cut/hike).
This reflects market pricing, not a forecast or recommendation. Markets can and do change rapidly in response to economic data.