What If Inflation Surprises High?
This scenario shows what happens to the rate path if inflation remains sticky or accelerates, forcing the RBA to maintain or raise rates. Probabilities are shifted to reflect the changed outlook.
Expected year-end rate (scenario)
4.87%
+102bp from current
Base case year-end rate
4.33%
Current market pricing
Rate path comparison
| Meeting | Base case | This scenario | Expected rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 76% chance of a hold | 58% chance of a hold | 3.98% |
| May 2026 | 56% chance of a 25bp hike | 61% chance of a 25bp hike | 4.21% |
| June 2026 | 75% chance of a hold | 58% chance of a hold | 4.34% |
| August 2026 | 55% chance of a hold | 50% chance of a 25bp hike | 4.52% |
| September 2026 | 80% chance of a hold | 64% chance of a hold | 4.64% |
| November 2026 | 78% chance of a hold | 62% chance of a hold | 4.76% |
| December 2026 | 81% chance of a hold | 67% chance of a hold | 4.87% |