RBA Rate Forecast 2026
Markets currently expect the cash rate to finish 2026 higher at around 4.66%, based on ASX interbank futures pricing.
Current rate
4.35%
Expected year-end rate
4.66%
Expected total move
+31bp
Expected rate path
| Meeting | Most likely outcome | Expected rate after |
|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | 61% chance of a hold | 4.45% |
| September 2026 | 75% chance of a hold | 4.49% |
| November 2026 | 54% chance of a hold | 4.61% |
| December 2026 | 75% chance of a hold | 4.66% |
About this forecast
This outlook is derived from ASX interbank futures settlement prices. The expected rate at each meeting reflects the probability-weighted outcome across all possible moves (hold, 25bp cut/hike, 50bp cut/hike).
This reflects market pricing, not a forecast or recommendation. Markets can and do change rapidly in response to economic data.