RBA Rate Forecast 2026
Markets currently expect the cash rate to finish 2026 higher at around 4.67%, based on ASX interbank futures pricing.
Current rate
4.10%
Expected year-end rate
4.67%
Expected total move
+57bp
Expected rate path
| Meeting | Most likely outcome | Expected rate after |
|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 61% chance of a 25bp hike | 4.28% |
| June 2026 | 66% chance of a hold | 4.36% |
| August 2026 | 48% chance of a 25bp hike | 4.51% |
| September 2026 | 66% chance of a hold | 4.60% |
| November 2026 | 71% chance of a hold | 4.66% |
| December 2026 | 80% chance of a hold | 4.67% |
About this forecast
This outlook is derived from ASX interbank futures settlement prices. The expected rate at each meeting reflects the probability-weighted outcome across all possible moves (hold, 25bp cut/hike, 50bp cut/hike).
This reflects market pricing, not a forecast or recommendation. Markets can and do change rapidly in response to economic data.