RBA Rate Forecast 2026
Markets currently expect the cash rate to finish 2026 higher at around 4.33%, based on ASX interbank futures pricing.
Current rate
3.85%
Expected year-end rate
4.33%
Expected total move
+48bp
Expected rate path
| Meeting | Most likely outcome | Expected rate after |
|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 76% chance of a hold | 3.91% |
| May 2026 | 56% chance of a 25bp hike | 4.09% |
| June 2026 | 75% chance of a hold | 4.14% |
| August 2026 | 55% chance of a hold | 4.26% |
| September 2026 | 80% chance of a hold | 4.29% |
| November 2026 | 78% chance of a hold | 4.33% |
| December 2026 | 81% chance of a hold | 4.33% |
About this forecast
This outlook is derived from ASX interbank futures settlement prices. The expected rate at each meeting reflects the probability-weighted outcome across all possible moves (hold, 25bp cut/hike, 50bp cut/hike).
This reflects market pricing, not a forecast or recommendation. Markets can and do change rapidly in response to economic data.