What will the RBA do next?
See the market-implied forecast and interest rate probabilities for upcoming RBA meetings.
Get the next RBA update by email
Get an email before each RBA decision plus what the market is pricing.
Meeting summary
Summary of the most recent RBA decision on —.
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Next meeting forecast
Where rates may head this year
How rates could change across upcoming RBA meetings.
These scenarios show how rates could evolve if conditions change — not forecasts.
Markets price uncertainty, not a single forecast. Individual meetings may show cuts and hikes even when the overall path is stable.
Detailed meeting probabilities
| Meeting date | Most likely | Expected rate | Cut | Hold | Hike |
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Mortgage impact calculator
See how interest rate changes could affect your loan repayments.
Add each loan, choose variable or fixed, and set any fixed expiry.
Data sources & methodology
Futures quotes
Methodology
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About RBA Rate Watch
How we work out what markets expect for interest rates.
RBA Rate Watch shows you what financial markets expect the Reserve Bank to do with interest rates. The RBA meets roughly eight times a year to decide whether to raise, lower, or hold the cash rate — the benchmark rate that directly affects your mortgage.
Instead of relying on opinions or forecasts, we use prices from real financial contracts traded on the ASX. These prices reflect where professional traders are putting real money, giving you a market-based view of what's likely to happen next.
Data is updated daily after market close. This tool is free to use and does not provide financial advice.
Frequently asked questions
Common questions about RBA rate decisions and market pricing.
What is the current RBA cash rate?
The current cash rate is shown at the top of this page. The cash rate is the benchmark interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia. When it changes, your variable mortgage rate typically moves with it.
When is the next RBA meeting?
The next meeting date is shown in the forecast card above. The RBA meets roughly eight times a year (about every six weeks) to decide whether to raise, lower, or hold interest rates.
How are the probabilities calculated?
We use prices from futures markets on the ASX — financial contracts that reflect what traders expect the cash rate to be. By comparing these prices before and after each RBA meeting date, we can work out the probability of a rate change.
Why use futures instead of Bloomberg WIRP / OIS?
WIRP is built on the OIS curve, which is a clean benchmark for the expected policy path over time — but that data is typically locked behind Bloomberg or bank terminals. ASX cash rate futures are exchange-traded, transparent, and freely accessible, which makes the methodology easy to audit. They also settle on the realised average cash rate for a calendar month, so they map cleanly to specific RBA meetings and month-by-month probabilities. Small differences versus OIS are structural, not errors.
Will the RBA cut interest rates?
The chance of a rate cut at the next meeting is shown in the forecast card above. These odds change daily as new economic data comes in. Check the history chart to see how expectations have shifted recently.
How does the cash rate affect my mortgage?
When the RBA changes the cash rate, banks usually adjust variable home loan rates within days. For example, a 0.25% cut on a $500,000 loan saves roughly $75 per month. Try the mortgage calculator on this page to see the impact on your loans.
How accurate are these predictions?
Market pricing has historically been a strong predictor of RBA decisions, especially for the next meeting or two. These probabilities reflect where professional traders are putting real money, not just opinions. That said, unexpected economic news can shift expectations quickly.
Where does this data come from?
The data comes from ASX interest rate futures — contracts traded on the Australian Securities Exchange that settle based on the average cash rate each month. Because each contract spans an RBA meeting, its price tells us what the market expects will happen to rates.
How often is this updated?
The data is updated daily after market close. The freshness indicator at the top of the page shows when the last update was.
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We send 1-2 emails per month with the decision preview and the latest market pricing.
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